Study: Omicron Surge Could Skyrocket Past Winter 2020 Pace

Wire Reports

A highly influential COVID-19 forecast is projecting that the Omicron surge may result in as many as 400,000 new coronavirus cases a day across the nation — significantly higher than last winter's record of 250,000 cases a day.

Cases have also been steadily rising in Anderson County, reflecting the national trend. 

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects the Omicron surge will continue rising swiftly through December and into January, potentially peaking later next month or in early February. Despite the increase in cases, predictions indicate there will be fewer daily deaths than during last winter's devastating peak.

The nation — and California — are already showing troubling signs of an Omicron-related surge. The U.S. is reporting an average of nearly 150,000 new coronavirus cases a day, approaching the peak of the summer Delta wave, which reached 164,000 new daily cases.

The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations during this winter's peak could be slightly higher than last year, the forecast says. 

The institute also predicts that single-day COVID-19 deaths could climb as high as 2,000 nationally by early February, about the same number reported during the Delta surge but fewer than the nearly 3,500 daily deaths during last winter's peak. 

The forecast for California projects as many as 150 COVID-19 deaths a day by the end of February, a rate similar to the peak of the summer Delta wave. Still, that is far less than last winter's surge, when California was tallying 550 deaths a day. 

Increased mask use could result in substantially fewer coronavirus cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, the forecast says. 

Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the institute, said that booster shots will also help.

"Getting a third dose for those eligible will substantially increase protection. Mask wearing remains a very effective strategy to avoid Omicron transmission and infection," Mokdad said on Twitter. 

"The unvaccinated and never-infected are at greatest risk. Vaccination for the unvaccinated is a powerful way to reduce personal risk. For those at increased risk due to age or comorbidities, avoiding indoor gatherings can further reduce risk," he added. 

In the coming days, COVID-19 hospitalizations will be a more relevant way to determine actions that local authorities may need to take, Mokdad said. That's because, while Omicron is rapidly spreading, there also will be a relatively high percentage of people infected with the variant who will remain asymptomatic. In addition, there will be a lower percentage of newly infected people who will require hospitalization.

Nonetheless, experts say the ultra-contagious nature of Omicron means that an extraordinarily high number of people could get infected simultaneously. Even if a lower percentage needs hospital care, if there are enough people who are infected simultaneously, that could result in strained hospital systems and, in some areas, overwhelm them.