Roll Call: Is Haley In Trouble in 2014?

If you listen to South Carolina Democrats, you are pretty certain that Republican Gov. Nikki R. Haley is in deep trouble next year. Not so, says Haley’s top strategist, Jon Lerner, arguing she is very likely to win re-election. Both assessments can’t be correct, can they?

“Despite bringing in 3 big-name out-of-state governors to help her build a crowd, Nikki Haley barely turned out more supporters than protesters for her big re-election announcement in deep-red Greenville County yesterday,” wrote South Carolina Democratic Party Communications Director Kristin Sosanie just after Haley announced her bid for a second term last month.

The Democratic state party’s press release went on to describe Haley’s crowd as “anemic” and to list her “failures,” including “making South Carolina one of the hardest places to earn a living” and “hiding a TB outbreak at a public school.” The release also noted that state “tax information was hacked and stolen” under Haley’s watch.

In a lengthy memo dated a few days before the Democratic press release, GOP consultant Lerner cited a number of reasons Haley is “likely to win the 2014 election comfortably.” Among other things, he noted her stronger financial position than in 2010, a unified Republican Party and her accomplishments and incumbency.

Haley, 41, will almost certainly face the same opponent she beat last time, Democratic state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, 42.

In 2010, she won by just 4.5 points (51.4 percent to 46.9 percent). Democrats note the narrow margin, while Republicans argue that Haley had to overcome many disadvantages to get elected as the state’s first female and first minority governor.

Lerner actually argues in his memo that the ’10 race was “not close.” He cites nine gubernatorial contests that were closer that year and points out that Barack Obama’s margin in the 2012 presidential race was closer than Haley’s was in her first race.

That’s true, of course, but all of the other close gubernatorial races that Lerner cites occurred in Democratic states or competitive ones. The huge anti-Obama wave of 2010 helped Republicans get close or win narrowly in difficult states, and all things being equal, it should have helped Haley in reliably Republican South Carolina. But of course, all things weren’t equal in the state at the time, given then-Gov. Mark Sanford’s problems, which could have muted the national wave.

But in other ways, Lerner’s argument is stronger and difficult to dismiss. Haley will have better funding and the state Chamber of Commerce will not be against her this time, as it was in 2010 when it endorsed Sheheen. And while 2014 isn’t likely to be as good a year nationally for her party as 2010 was, a second midterm election with Obama in the White House should still favor the GOP.

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