The coming hurricane season in the US will be slower than usual, with just three to six expected, the national weather agency said in its annual forecast on Thursday.
But officials warned repeatedly it takes just one storm to make landfall to cause a major disaster.
The annual forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted eight to 13 named tropical storms, and three to six hurricanes.
One or two of those hurricanes could develop into major hurricanes of category 3 or higher, which carry wind speeds above 111mph.
The forecast, which covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, was lower than in typical years, largely because a developing El Niño. The system tends to damp down hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
But Noaa's administrator, Kathryn Sullivan, cautioned against complacency even in an El Niño year. “Today is not about percentages and ranges,” she told reporters on a briefing call. “It only takes one destructive storm to make for a very bad season on the ground.”