It’s not a perfect deal for the White House — but it’s a worse deal for Republicans.
Democrats won’t say it too loudly just yet, but the emerging budget agreement leaves Republicans with remarkably little to show for forcing the first government shutdown in 17 years: They barely nicked Obamacare and their poll numbers are in tank.
President Barack Obama would get most of what he wanted. He had insisted that Congress reopen the government and extend the country’s borrowing authority without any ideological strings attached. He held the line on the debt ceiling and Democrats are set to hold off Republican attempts to lock in next year’s round of sequester budget cuts early.
But it’s not the squeaky clean bill Obama sought.
There would be minor changes to the president’s signature health care law. The White House and Democratic leaders will argue the Obamacare provisions were a one-for-one proposition — each party got a fix to the Affordable Care Act — and did not come as the price for raising the debt limit or restarting the government, according to Democratic officials involved in the talks.
The Obamacare provisions risk muddying the president’s message, but the changes are so negligible that even House Republicans are grumbling that it’s a clean debt limit increase.
Even if the potential Senate deal survives in the House — still very much an open question — Obama would soon be back fighting the next round with Republicans. The debt limit increase would last almost four months. It’s less than what Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) wanted, but longer than what House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) suggested. And the next debt limit hike wouldn’t be contingent upon a budget deal, as Boehner proposed.
Above all, Democratic leaders thinks the potential deal allows them to make progress on their overarching goal: Convincing Republicans that Democrats won’t cave to debt limit demands.
The negotiations continued Monday night, and no formal announcement is expected until after Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) meet separately with their caucuses Tuesday. New sticking points could emerge, as they did late Monday, but both leaders closed the day by saying they were optimistic.